American - Writer | January 13, 1978 -
In baseball you have terrific data and you can be a lot more creative with it.
Nate Silver
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The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.
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Race is still the No. 1 determinant in every election.
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I don't think that somebody who is observing or predicting behavior should also be participating in the 'experiment.'
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Midterm elections can be dreadfully boring, unfortunately.
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I think there's space in the market for a half-dozen kind of polling analysts.
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All I know is that I have way more stuff that I want to write about than I possibly have time to.
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I view my role now as providing more of a macro-level skepticism, rather than saying this poll is good or this poll is evil.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'
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Success makes you less intimidated by things.
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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.
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