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Barry Ritholtz Quotes

American - Author | -

Forecasting is simply not a strength of the species; we are much better with tools and narrative storytelling.

Strength Better Tools Storytelling

To know whether stocks are cheap or pricey, we typically look at price-to-earnings ratio. Valuation is a tougher question than many folks realize.

Look Know Cheap Realize Question

People forget that although we can pinpoint the price, we can only guess at future earnings. The past isn't much help: It simply tells whether a market was pricey or cheap.

Future Past People Help Forget Only

Gains in corporate profits depend in large part on accelerating global economic growth.

Growth Economic Growth Depend Global

Investing is about making probabilistic decisions with limited information about an unknowable future. The variables are well known, as are the possible outcomes.

Future Decisions Information Possible

You, your employer and your plan's investment managers fail to follow even the most basic rules of investing. You overtrade, chase performance, do not think long term. All of you - All Of You - have done a horrible job managing your retirement plans.

Job Performance Think Retirement You

Active management leads to lots of poor investor behavior. It sends people chasing after whoever has the hot hand at the moment.

Moment People Management Behavior

Often, investors will discover a manager after he's had a terrific run, usually when he lands on a magazine cover somewhere. Invariably, funds swell up with new investor money just before they revert to their long-term averages.

Money New Manager Run Will Up

A well-designed 401(k) plan is an enormous competitive edge when recruiting and retaining employees.

Employees Plan Edge Competitive

Outcome is simply the final score: Who won the game; what numbers came up in a roll of the dice; how high did a stock go. Outcome is the result, regardless of the method used to achieve it. It is not controllable.

Game Result Numbers Achieve Go High

Any Wall Street advertising that does not go into the boring details of methodology is most likely to be pushing past performance.

Past Advertising Performance Details

Indeed, eventually, random outcomes all revert to the mean, meaning that streaks eventually end. Understanding this is a key part of intelligent and rational investing.

Random Key End Understanding Meaning

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